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Solar Cycle Peak, Rogue Oceanic Waves, Hazards Below Yellowstone, and More

Interesting scientific and technological advancements from November 2023

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Google's epic research in robotics and weather forecasting

Presenting some of the most interesting scientific and technological updates (the solar cycle peak of 2024, monster waves, and more) from November 2023. Make sure you subscribe to SciTech Vault’s YouTube channel.

Solar Cycle Peak in 2024

We all know that the Sun’s magnetic activity fluctuates over a broad range of timescales, spanning from minutes to thousands of years and beyond. Sunspots have always piqued the curiosity of space researchers. By definition, sunspots are dark regions on the solar surface with heightened magnetic activity. Interestingly, sunspots appear, grow, and disappear over time. This cyclical pattern of sunspot activity, also known as the sunspot cycle, repeats approximately every 11 years. Space physicists from the Indian Institutes of Science Education and Research have predicted a peak for the 25th solar cycle in 2024. What does this mean for us? It means that next year, we need to take extra steps to prevent the disruption of satellite operations, radio communications, and power grids. On the positive side, gigantic auroras are very likely to be visible during the peak of the 25th solar cycle. Of course, when I say “25th solar cycle,” I mean that we have only been able to study and record 24 such events so far.

Forecasting Rogue Oceanic Waves

On January 1, 1995, a 26-meter-tall rogue wave caught everyone off guard before slamming into a Norwegian oil platform. Rogue waves, also known as monster or killer waves, are unusually large waves that form in seas and oceans. They exhibit distinctive features such as atypical height, high speed, and steepness, setting them apart from surrounding waves. These extraordinary waves pose a significant threat to ships and offshore structures. They can form and emerge without sufficient warning, even in seemingly calm seas and oceans, possibly due to the constructive interference of smaller waves. However, the precise mechanism governing the formation of rogue waves remains largely unknown. A research team has recently used artificial intelligence to forecast rogue waves by analyzing 700 years’ worth of data, marking a significant advancement in wave prediction technology. This is a major scientific breakthrough, considering the potential damage rogue waves can inflict on ships and oil rigs.

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Google’s Weather Forecasts

Speaking of predictions, did you know that Google is taking weather forecasting to the next level with the help of machine learning? Google’s “GraphCast” employs machine learning and trains itself using reanalysis data or weather-related data from the past. Thanks to this approach, GraphCast can predict hundreds of global weather variables covering a 10-day period within 60 seconds. While Google’s GraphCast does have certain technical limitations, it proves to be more efficient in tracking tropical cyclones and extreme temperatures than existing weather prediction models.

Robots Ask Questions

Researchers from Google and Princeton University are employing a new approach to create robots that are smarter than ever before. Imagine this situation: There’s a table with multiple dissimilar toy cars, each painted with a different color. You ask a robot to pick a toy car. In such a scenario, the robot should ideally ask the user a question or a series of questions that will help it choose the correct toy car. Guess what? Engineers are precisely adopting this approach and using large language models to revolutionize the field of robotics. However, trained robots are being programmed to ask a question only when the options meet a certain probability threshold. For instance, the robot does not ask a question when tasked with picking a red apple from a group of red and green apples because there is no uncertainty involved. Meanwhile, let’s wait and see what happens when the Google-trained robot is tasked with picking a girlfriend or boyfriend for a date. Of course, that was a joke.  

Mechanism of Phototropism Revealed

We all know that plants do not have eyes. But then, how do they determine the direction of light? Well, plant tissues harbor smart photoreceptors that respond to light, aiding the plant in decision-making. This phenomenon is known as “phototropism.” For instance, whereas plant stems typically exhibit positive phototropism by growing towards the light source, plant roots tend to display the opposite, or negative phototropism, by moving away from the source of light. Although biologists were aware of this phenomenon, the underlying mechanism had remained elusive for years. A team of brilliant scientists has finally decoded the underlying mechanism of phototropism. Long story short, air-filled channels inside plant tissues facilitate the process of phototropism. Quite interesting, isn’t it?

WWII Co-Pilot’s Remains Found

Quite recently, something truly remarkable happened in Sciacca, a town in southern Italy. Nearly 80 years ago, a B-25 bomber had crashed in this town during World War II. A team of investigators, led by forensic researchers from Cranfield University, conducted a careful investigation in Italy. In October 2023, the team performed extensive DNA analysis and announced the discovery of human remains belonging to Gilbert Haldeen Myers, almost eight decades after the airplane crash. Myers was co-piloting the B-25 bomber when it crashed in the Italian town of Sciacca. By the way, did you know that DNA-based forensic investigations have resolved numerous mysteries in the recent past?

Hazards Below Yellowstone

Have you ever been to the Yellowstone National Park located in the U.S. state of Wyoming? You will be surprised to know that there are geological hazards lurking below Yellowstone. Using “LIDAR” or Light Detection and Ranging technology, researchers created detailed maps of the terrain beneath the dense forests and foliage of Yellowstone. By doing this, they gained insights into the prehistoric landslides and earthquakes that tormented this region long time back. By studying these historic geological events, scientists are gaining a better understanding of the current risks faced by the millions of people residing in the vicinity of Yellowstone.


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Did the Vesuvius Volcano or Earthquake Destroy Pompeii?

Scientists discover meaningful answers after a long time

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Pompeii volcano and earthquake
How Mt. Vesuvius Destroyed Pompeii

Challenge

The 79 CE eruption of Vesuvius, which occurred in the first century of the Common Era, caused extensive destruction in Pompeii. This made it challenging to separate and identify the effects of simultaneous volcanic and seismic activity. Researchers aimed to distinguish the impact of both phenomena to reconstruct the events accurately. However, they were not able to achieve this differentiation until now. In other words, it wasn’t clear whether the initial volcano or the subsequent earthquake caused the massive destruction.  

Innovation

A collaborative study by Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV) and Pompeii Archaeological Park was able to address the complexity of these co-occurring events. The study deciphered the destruction of Pompeii and retrospectively analyzed the decisions made by its inhabitants during the catastrophic events.

Implementation

Researchers conducted thorough excavations in Pompeii, focusing on collapsed buildings and skeletal remains. They identified earthquake-induced damage and trauma in two skeletons, revealing how seismic events contributed to the collapse of structures and the fatalities among Pompeiians.

More specifically, the study authors found that the eruption of Vesuvius struck while Pompeiians were engaged in their daily activities. For nearly 18 hours, the city was bombarded with pumice lapilli—small rock and ash particles—which forced many residents to seek refuge.

When the eruption briefly subsided, those who remained in their shelters may have felt secure, only to be later overwhelmed by powerful earthquakes. This suggests that the catastrophic destruction of Pompeii cannot be attributed solely to the initial volcanic activity. Instead, it must also be attributed to the subsequent earthquakes that caused the collapse of already weakened structures.

Outcome

The study revealed that the seismic activity that followed the Vesuvius eruption significantly influenced the destruction of Pompeii. It contributed to the collapse of buildings and the deaths of many residents. These insights provide a clearer picture of the interplay between volcanic and seismic events. The study also helps reconstruct the experiences and choices of those who lived through the eruption.

Reference: http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/feart.2024.1386960 


By the way, did you know that a new method is able to predict seizures with high accuracy?

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Satellite ERS-2 to Crash into Earth

Dead European satellite to make an uncontrolled reentry soon

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Satellite crash
What are the odds of getting hit by partially burnt satellite debris?

Imagine this situation: It’s a beautiful and sunny Sunday morning. You are vacationing on a cruise ship in the Bahamas. All of a sudden, an odd piece of metal lands on the deck of the ship, narrowly missing your feet. Sounds like a scene from a Hollywood movie, correct? Well, something like this many actually happen this week. Did you know that a dead European satellite is about to crash into Earth sometime soon?

Statistical odds

According to the official announcement made by the European Space Agency, satellite ERS-2 is scheduled for an uncontrolled reentry on February 21, with an error margin of plus or minus one and a half days. Additionally, space experts are not entirely certain about the precise location where the satellite may crash after surviving reentry. However, it is a known fact that such landings mainly happen in the seas or oceans. According to experts from Europe’s premier space agency, the largest fragment that could reach land or a water body could easily weigh more than 50 kg.

Quite interestingly, statistical calculations indicate that the odds of a piece of the defunct satellite landing on someone are one in a billion. For the sake of comparison, the odds of getting struck by lightning in any given year are approximately 1 in 500,000 in the United States. So, one in a billion is clearly much lower than that. The dead satellite weights nearly 2,300 kg and has no fuel left in it.

Historic but unrelated impacts

Speaking of statistical odds, did you know that in the year 1954, a woman who was peacefully sleeping on her couch was hit by a meteorite that weighed roughly 2 kg? Luckily, the woman from Alabama did not die. However, she did suffer injuries inflicted by a rock from outer space.

In the year 1992, a space rock that was more than 4 billion years old struck a parked car in Peekskill, New York. The owner of the car did not repair the dent created by the meteorite. Instead, he sold the car and the meteorite to interested buyers for nearly $75,000.

Two interesting updates

Before I conclude this post, allow me to share some interesting updates. Elon Musk, the world’s wealthiest scientist, investor, and tech innovator, who has a bachelor’s degree in physics and economics, is doing us a huge favor by deorbiting 100 old Starlink satellites. Thank you, Elon! This means a lot to us.

Also, the United States of America has launched missile-detecting satellites into orbit after intelligence agencies revealed that Russia was planning to develop and deploy nuclear-powered anti-satellite weapons to presumably target U.S. space satellites.


By the way, did you know that dinosaurs could be held accountable for facilitating the process of human aging?

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Mass Extinction Driven by Human Activity

Homo sapiens have been interfering with the natural course of evolution for ages

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Mass extinction
Mass extinction is a stark reality

A study published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences has unveiled a startling revelation: that human activity is driving the mass extinction of entire genera of animals. The authors of the study argue that this human-induced mass extinction is dramatically reshaping the course of evolution. They claim that it is negatively impacting the environmental conditions that are crucial for supporting human life on this planet. The study notes that corrective action is urgently warranted.

How does human activity cause mass extinction?

Homo sapiens have been interfering with the natural course of evolution for ages by exploiting natural habitats for agricultural and commercial use. Such intervention is known to trigger the destruction and fragmentation of thriving ecosystems. The problem gets further compounded because of the overexploitation of natural resources (e.g., the extensive clearing of forests for wood). The combustion of fossil fuels makes it (the sixth mass extinction) even worse.


What is the difference between genus and species?

“Genera” have a higher taxonomic rank than “species.” A genus (plural: genera) basically represents a group of closely related species that share common characteristics and ancestry.


What to expect next?

When a species becomes extinct, another one within the same genus sometimes steps in to carry out some of its original ecological functions. However, when entire genera vanish, it creates a huge void in the ecosystem. Unfortunately, a massive loss in biodiversity can possibly get restored only after millions of years. Therefore, we need to undertake urgent rescue measures before things escalate dramatically.

Quick example: We all know that Lyme disease is spreading rapidly in certain geographic locations because of white-footed mice. These deadly rodents used to compete with passenger pigeons for food. However, mouse populations started booming after the extinction of passenger pigeons. The problem got aggravated further because of a steep decline in the populations of rodent predators such as wolves and cougars.

let’s reduce our individual carbon footprints (starting today)

The study examines the magnitude of this imminent crisis. Click here to learn more about this landmark PNAS study.

If you have adopted any specific measures to mitigate the effects of climate change, then do share them with us in the comments section below.



By the way, did you know that researchers have extensively studied serial killers?

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Research Studies on Serial Killers

Can artificial intelligence be used to predict crime?

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Serial killers
SFPD: 0; Zodiac: 37?

This is the Zodiac speaking….

Several letters mailed by the notorious serial killer “Zodiac,” who terrorized Northern California during the 1960s, used to carry the aforementioned sentence. Although one of his cryptograms was successfully decoded during recent times, the true identity of the Zodiac killer continues to remain unknown (some say that he was Gary Francis Poste). Meanwhile, multiple peer-reviewed research studies published in scientific journals have made attempts to decode the minds of these deadly criminals. In today’s article, we will discuss some of these published works.

Was it gary francis poste?

Serial killers, childhood trauma, and more …

Because serial killing is so rare, scientists find it challenging to identify the exact cause of this psychopathological behavior. Nevertheless, multiple studies indicate that childhood trauma (e.g., abuse, neglect, loss of loved ones, parental separation, violence, or dysfunction) is a common and recurring theme observed in the early lives of many serial killers. Experts also suggest studying the associated “timelines,” or broad ranges of serial killers’ life experiences, instead of solely focusing on their childhood history. Meanwhile, a 2014 study identifies neurodevelopmental disorder (e.g., autism spectrum disorder) as a rare but influencing factor (but not as a directly contributing cause).

Although not specifically related to serial killing, a 2022 study published in Brain Imaging and Behavior notes that criminals who commit murder show reduced gray matter in brain areas that are considered critical for behavioral control and social cognition. The 2022 study focuses on imprisoned adult (male) offenders who have committed homicide (n = 203) or other non-homicide offenses (n = 605).

Is it possible to predict serial killings?

In 2014, researchers from the University of California, Los Angeles, created a stochastic model based on the serial killings of the notorious Russian criminal Andrei Chikatilo. According to the model, the serial killer committed murders when the neuronal excitation in his brain exceeded a certain threshold. The published report also studied two other serial killers besides Andrei (Yang Xinhai and Moses Sithole) and claimed that their inter-murder intervals followed a power law with an exponent of ~1.5. Quite interestingly, the same study also showed that the probability to commit a new murder depended on the time passed since the last murder, thus making prediction possible.

Other researchers have also developed models for crime prediction. For instance, a paper published in Nature Human Behavior in 2022 discusses an artificial-intelligence-based model that successfully predicts crime (general crime, not serial killings specifically) in an urban neighborhood (Chicago, USA). Experts believe that this model has a high degree of accuracy.

artificial intelligence for crime prediction

Can serial killings be prevented?

A controversial 249-page-long U.S. Department of Justice publication from the year 1998 (author: J. Norris) had recommended monitoring individuals who are likely to become serial killers. Experts also suggest resorting to early identification and timely intervention. Such identification/intervention could be facilitated by establishing a close collaboration between mental health professionals/local communities and law enforcement. However, such collaboration is likely to prove controversial owing to multiple reasons including patient rights. On the other hand, making mental health services accessible and affordable to the masses could in fact nip the problem in the bud or at least prevent dramatic escalation. Other solutions include spreading awareness on serial killings and training communities to identify the associated behavioral red flags.

Question: What are your thoughts on the above? Please feel free to share them with us in the comments section below.      


By the way, did you know that clinicians may now be able to use early hallucinations to predict cognitive decline in patients with Parkinson’s?


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